The Tribune

With Charlie Harper

IT seems like every couple of days there is a news story reporting on mounting evidence that increasing numbers of countries around the world are choosing to sit out the growing conflict between Russia and US-led NATO that is being played out on the fertile fields of Ukraine.

Last week, several national publications in the US noted that big international players like Brazil and India were moving toward adopting a formal neutral stance in the intensifying European war.

While Republican support has been generally solid for American President Joe Biden in his efforts to keep the supply lines open and full for Ukraine, overwhelming support for the West at the UN doesn’t seem as predictable as it may have been six months ago.

Maybe Donald Trump’s boorish insensitivity on the international stage and casual abandonment of long-observed American foreign policy tenets accelerated a weakening of support overseas for the US. Maybe less-developed economies are weary of American and Western hypocrisy and inconsistency on issues from climate change to financial regulations.

And it’s entirely possible that the current concerns are overblown, simply the natural effects of stories leaked for particular bilateral or even multilateral purposes.

But a recent report from South Asia suggests that under certain conditions, some nations are moving away from the US dollar in transacting their international business, and that could also signal a step away from American international hegemony.

A press report last month suggested that Bangladesh has formally approved repayment of a $318m loan to a Russian nuclear power plant developer – in Chinese yuan. In this particular case, use of the Chinese currency was needed because of international sanctions imposed on Russia as punishment for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, it’s another small piece of what may be a much larger emerging puzzle that points to a gradual, perhaps inexorable, diminishing of the American political, economic and military dominance in the world.

It’s definitely something worth keeping a careful eye on.

DWINDLING SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN

It was just a brief Associated Press wire-service report, dated almost exactly 26 years ago this morning.

“Taiwan and the Bahamas severed diplomatic relations Sunday because of the Caribbean country’s decision to establish ties with rival China.

“Taiwan decided to break off relations after ‘honest and deep’ discussions with the Bahamian government, Vice Foreign Minister Chen Chien-jen said. But at almost the same time, a Taiwanese Foreign Ministry statement said that over the past year, the Bahamas has ‘succumbed to Communist China’s temptations.’

“Bahamas Foreign Affairs Minister Janet Bostwick said in a statement that the decision to switch diplomatic links with China was made ‘after careful and deliberate consideration.’

“The Bahamas is one of just 31 countries that recognise Taiwan, which China tries to keep isolated diplomatically.”

That report appeared in 1997. Britain was about to cede Hong Kong to China. The Far East, and China in particular, would likely never again be the same.

Meantime, China has been far more visible here in The Bahamas than Taiwan ever was. Evidence of Beijing’s influence is certainly plentiful in New Providence.

And despite the efforts of both former House speaker Nancy Pelosi and her successor Kevin McCarthy to demonstrate their continued loyalty to democratic Taiwan, the erosion of Taiwan’s diplomatic position continues.

The total of 31 countries that recognised Taiwan in 1997 dwindled last month to just 13 with the decision by Honduras to switch sides.

The basic reason for the change wasn’t much different than The Bahamas’ decision a generation ago.

Honduras’s relationship with Taiwan, which dates back to the 1940s, was initially based on resistance to communism during the Cold War era. This relationship evolved to trade ties after Taiwan began giving development assistance to Honduras and received diplomatic support in return.

Honduras is now in financial trouble. Their Foreign Minister Eduardo has said his country was “up to its neck” in debt, including $600m owed to Taiwan.

Attempting to leverage economic assistance in the ongoing China-Taiwan contest for diplomatic acceptance, Honduras reportedly sought $2.5bn in further aid from Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister accused Honduras of making a request that was “a bit like bribery.”

The defection of Honduras continued a trend in our region. Its decision to recognize China followed similar moves by Panama in 2017, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic in 2018, and Nicaragua in 2021.

Belize, Haiti and Guatemala have remained aligned with Taiwan. 

READY FOR A COMPETITIVE NBA SEMI-FINAL ROUND

Here’s a bet that the NBA’s conference semi-final series will earn really large, lucrative TV ratings this spring. That’s because the middle of the country got scoured right out of the playoffs in the previous round: Cleveland, Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis and Milwaukee all exited, every one of them except the Timberwolves as favorites.

 The Los Angeles Clippers, Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks, coastal squads all, were also eliminated, but they were expected to depart as lower seeded teams.

This week brought a report that the Game Seven between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors was the most-watched NBA playoff game in 24 years.

Now, eight teams remain, from big markets and/or rich histories and, at least in three of the four matchups, really enticing historical rivalries with their opponents.

The Miami Heat, having dispatched the East’s top-seeded Bucks, now square off against New York’s true traditional entry, the recently mostly hapless Knicks. Under veteran defensive maestro coach Tom Thibodeau, however, the Knicks outperformed the Cavaliers in the last round and figure to be a tough out even for the battle-tested Heat and their brilliant coach Eric Spoelstra.

The Heat, with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and the gang, won by seven points in Sunday’s opener. But regular playoff star Butler hurt his ankle in that first game, didn’t play Tuesday and the Knicks bounced back to even the series. If Butler can return, though, the Heat looks like a solid bet to advance. New York vs Miami is always a rich encounter, whether in basketball, football or baseball.

Elsewhere, the Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers face off for the latest installment of a truly fascinating rivalry whose most classic episodes featured Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain half a century ago. But these two teams, especially Boston, have featured so many stars over the NBA’s past 50 years that their matchups are generally riveting.

The Celtics are the higher seed, but this best-of-seven series figures to be tightly contested, especially if Philly’s MVP candidate Joel Embiid can stay healthy. The 76ers outhustled Boston in the series opener without recently-crowned league MVP Embiid, but this matchup looks like a good bet to go to six or seven games.

Out west, we have San Francisco vs Los Angeles. It’s Seth Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. There are lots of recent championship rings on these rosters, and injuries may play a role, as both Davis and James have been hurt recently.

Much is being discussed about LeBron’s playoff history with the Warriors, particularly when Golden State was buoyed by the prolific presence of Kevin Durant. And many are recalling the NBA Finals of 2015, when James carried a wounded Cleveland Cavaliers team to a six-game defeat virtually by himself. Then, the following year, Cleveland won its first major sports title since 1964 by reversing a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors for the championship.

Most attention in this series is likely to gravitate toward Curry v. James. Both are at their best on the biggest stage and when the lights are brightest. It’s a shame we may have to stay up so late to watch.

The Lakers prevailed in the series opener on Tuesday night, but this series has epic potential and will likely extend over the full seven games.

Finally, there is Phoenix, recently reinforced with the huge addition of Durant, against the Denver Nuggets and their two-time MVP Nicola Jokic. Of course, our own Deandre Ayton anchors the middle for the Suns, who lost the first two games in Denver and won’t be favored to advance. This one might depend on how quickly Durant can integrate his versatile game with his teammates.

And Chris Paul got hurt in the playoffs again. This champion without a title is a great player who cannot stay healthy when it most counts. Here’s hoping Ayton steps up and the Suns can make this series more competitive.