The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

“Beleaguered. That’s how I’d describe him. Beset from all sides. Unable to find a way to navigate through the mess that he has created for himself.”

A pundit was thus discussing the third person in the presidential succession in the United States today, the speaker of the House of Representatives, the honourable Kevin McCarthy, Republican congressman from California.

Indeed, McCarthy must be developing ulcers as he tries to manage a tiny four-vote GOP majority in the House. This 58-year-old man, married for over 30 years, has represented for more than a decade a central California district based on the oil and gas industry and agri-business centre known as Bakersfield.

Bakersfield is made for Republicans. This ninth largest city in California is a regional hub for energy production, heavy farm output, and country and western music.

The latter is because the city and surrounding area were inundated in the 1930s by refugees from the Depression-era American Dust Bowl. Those refugees were predominantly from Texas and Oklahoma. They brought their music with them.

Buck Owens, with 21 number one hits on the country music charts, and Merle Haggard, famous for the Vietnam War-era anthem “Okie from Muskogee,” are the headliners of the country music ‘Bakersfield sound.’

The Bakersfield sound became one of the most popular and influential country genres of the 1960s, initiating a revival of honky-tonk music and influencing many subsequent country music trends.

So, all things considered, McCarthy has a solid, secure GOP seat in the House. But his perch as leader of the House of Representatives has not been secure for even a moment since he was chosen as Speaker in January.

He certainly knew what to expect when he so ardently sought the speaker’s gavel. His two immediate predecessors, John Boehner of Ohio and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, became politically beholden to and effectively hostages to the remnants of the Newt Gingrich-spawned radical right-wing Tea Party and its successors. This extreme, alienated movement, part of which is now known as the Freedom Caucus, has essentially morphed into the nuclear core of the MAGA, Trump-at-any-cost coalition that so intimidates Republicans from all over the political spectrum. It also generates millions of dollars in small donations every month for Trump, often from some of the poorest parts of the country.

Now McCarthy is squarely in their sights. There is much speculation as to exactly why this is so. Some observers say that he wanted the speaker’s job so desperately that he became almost a laughingstock for his obsessive ambition. Others believe he is simply not suited for a position that requires strength and commands skills but also the ability to identify and pursue practical compromise in the interests of keeping the government running.

McCarthy is facing three challenges. First, he is personally reviled by a small group of Freedom Caucus and other congresspersons who have never favored him to be speaker of the House and did not vote for him in January. A ringleader of these is 41-year-old Matt Gaetz, who has represented the furthest-west Florida congressional district centred on Pensacola since 2017, and is widely tipped to be a candidate to be Florida’s governor in three years’ time.

Gaetz has for several years been the target of federal investigations. The House Ethics Committee reopened in June its investigation into Gaetz, allegedly for his paying a minor for sex, according to published reports.

These days, though, Gaetz is making headlines for attacking McCarthy.

The speaker’s second challenge is the silly game of chicken often played for political gain in the American Congress. Whenever the national debt ceiling needs to be raised to pay for federal appropriations, or the current federal budget authorization expires, Congress must take action to enable the government to carry on. Republicans have for many years turned this into high-stakes theatrical politics, and this year is no exception.

A proposed budget bill to fund government operations beyond September 30 is now languishing due to the opposition of a handful of Freedom Caucus members who are holding out for more concessions for their priorities. They want deep federal spending cuts and attention to several other policy priorities, including tougher southern border restrictions.

The current compromise budget proposal would lead to immediate, dramatic spending cuts across the federal government, with agency budgets being slashed by eight percent, except for the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs, which would be funded at current levels.

McCarthy’s goal is to vote on the bill today, but even if he succeeds, the Democratic-controlled Senate won’t agree, and the resulting impasse is a hot mess that neither political party wants because it doesn’t want to take the blame for a suspension of transfer payments like social security cheques that would follow a government shutdown.

Many members in the House Freedom Caucus have said they won't vote for a stopgap budget continuing resolution unless it includes language to address "woke policies" and "weaponisation of the US Department of Justice," which is engaged in prosecuting Donald Trump and dozens of others for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Other dissidents have said they won't support any continuing resolution at all, on general principles.

"I don't know," McCarthy said Monday when asked if the current budget measure will be passed in the House. "It's a good thing I love a challenge," McCarthy continued when asked about the bill’s prospects in the Senate. "Every day will be a challenge. We've got a long week. We are not at September 30th yet but as I tell everybody, I've never seen anybody win a government shutdown.”

Others, including Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, echo those sentiments. And there are reports that moderates from both parties are quietly negotiating a settlement without McCarthy’s direct involvement.

Chaos looms.

McCarthy’s final challenge is to his current position. Part of his deal with the devil to ascend to the speakership was his acquiescence in a measure that gives any member of the House the right to introduce a bill of no confidence in the speaker, forcing a vote on whether to replace him or her.

So any House member can initiate this humiliating procedure at any time. Several radical-right members of the House have suggested they are willing to do so, absent further McCarthy concessions.

"Real leadership takes courage and willingness to fight for the country, not for power and a position," Indiana Republican Victoria Spartz said. "The Republican House is failing the American people.”

There was no breakthrough over the weekend with Sen Ron Johnson (R-Wis), who is holding up a trio of government funding bills because he wants them to be voted on individually rather than as a package, according to people familiar with the situation.

Frustrated Republicans and Democrats said Johnson’s blockade is wasting time and will lead to what Johnson says he doesn’t want: the spending bills being rolled into one omnibus measure that receives one vote.

“An initial motion to vacate might not be likely to succeed,” Gaetz told reporters.

The reason?

“There’s 200 of us or so — maybe more — that will stick by the speaker,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

So what's the fuss?

Well, McCarthy’s actions suggest he is worried about losing his job. He is constantly watching over his shoulder, fearful the far-right flank of his party will relieve him of his job while making concessions to appease these members.

Last week, as talk on the Hill grew that he may face a motion-to-vacate vote, he pushed back at the idea with a bit of salty language to try to quell the talk during a House GOP conference meeting.

It’s the 18 mostly moderate Republicans who represent districts Biden won and who secured the Republican majority who could feel the electoral repercussions of a shutdown or an impeachment inquiry that goes off the rails.

Since becoming speaker, McCarthy has worked repeatedly to appease the conservatives most likely to support a motion to vacate, instead of with a governing bipartisan majority. McCarthy’s approach is different from the previous two Republican speakers, who didn’t work so hard to accommodate the far right and were nudged out of their jobs.

The approach has brought Washington to the brink of a government shutdown and put Republicans in swing districts — whose victories last year delivered McCarthy his slim majority — in tough positions.