The Tribune

 THE stage is now nearly set for the Trump-Biden rematch in November. Major campaign issues are becoming clear: immigration and border security; the Middle East, and the economy.

The most dramatic issue at the moment is America’s border with Mexico. Biden is now declaring that he would close that border temporarily if the press of immigrants grew to overwhelm the US border forces deployed to keep out unwanted migrants. To many, this represents a long-overdue change to acknowledge the severity of the issue.

As Biden pivots, the public feud continues between Biden and Congress on now-stalled legislation linking immigration and border reform with further assistance to Ukraine and Israel. Trump’s meddling from the campaign podium has not been helpful, to say the least.

The administration’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict is moving toward more forceful pressure on the Israelis to suspend and ultimately call off their current evisceration of Gaza. This situation changes daily.

And Biden will be sorely tested in the months to come by the theocrats in Tehran who want Iran to lead the charge to expel or reduce American influence in the Middle East.

The US must be constantly wary of Iran, a regional powerhouse whose ambitions are great and whose economic, political and cultural reach is truly significant. There are reports that Tehran is inching closer to development of a full military nuclear capability, which would only make them more formidable.

Both Tehran and Washington will need to be especially cautious as the tit-for-tat attack and response cycle accelerates slowly in the region. On Tuesday, the head of the influential Iranian Revolutionary Guards warned Iran will respond to any threat from the United States.

“We hear threats coming from American officials,” he said. “We tell them that they have already tested us, and we now know one another. No threat will be left unanswered.”

As those verbal fistfights over border security and the Middle East intensify, however, there is increasing evidence that the US economy is really recovering well from the COVID pandemic-era shocks, and that there is credit to be shared, including for Trump. An American economic recovery is of course terrific news for The Bahamas.

Biden’s challenge will be to show voters these economic policy results while hoping other factors like wage increases lower the impact of stubborn price rises.

Meantime, many officials are touting this resilient American economy. Biden boasted last week that the annual US inflation rate dropped to two percent over the last half of 2023. Over the past four years covering the pandemic, wage growth overall has been 2.8 percent.

Yellen has been more specific and more vocal. “The current American economy has been the fairest on record,” she said last week. “We have avoided pain for most middle-class American families.

“The US has seen a particularly strong recovery, and inflation has cooled more quickly than in other large economies,” Yellen said. “The US recovery is on a very desirable path.” Recent data have backed up her assertions.

How has this happened?

Economists cite the massive US government infusion of literally trillions of dollars into the economy as the driver for this uniquely effective recovery. This may herald a switch in future crises from using primarily monetary policy levers such as interest rates (the province of the Federal Reserve in Washington) to employing fiscal measures like cash infusions (the province of the US Congress and Executive Branch).

The International Monetary Fund estimates that all Congressionally-approved stimulus measures (individual checks, small business loans, unemployment benefits) added up to 25.5 percent of the US gross domestic product! Britain was closest with 19 percent, but other European nations spent closer to ten percent. It made a difference.

And all this spending came both in the latter part of the Trump administration and at the beginning of the Biden presidency. Both men deserve high marks for their support of Congressional action – as does the US Congress.

In the current toxic, internet-fueled atmosphere of internecine fratricide in American political life, it is worth noting that some of its most currently reviled individuals (the past two presidents) and institutions (the Senate and House of Representatives) nevertheless did a better job at leading the US back from the brink of a crippling depression better than did any other country.

Super Bowl Sunday set with Forty-Niners rematch against the Chiefs

Over the weekend in the NFL’s semifinal games, both underdogs covered the betting line spread, but only one actually won the game. That was the Kansas City Chiefs, who are now set to appear in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the past five years, have rediscovered their brilliance, enjoy the faithful support of the world’s greatest pop star, and are beginning to force comparisons with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots as the greatest dynasty in the history of pro football in the United States.

Patriots (and Bucs) Quarterback Brady is now retired. His coach through the glory years in New England, Belichick, has just parted ways with the Patriots and has failed to secure another NFL head coaching job for the upcoming season. The Patriots played so poorly and lost so many games this past season that they own the third pick in April’s NFL draft.

Kansas City, in stark contrast, is rolling. They had to beat the three other best teams in their conference playoffs, successively defeating the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and the Ravens – the last two wins on the road where their sensational QB Patrick Mahomes had never previously won or hardly ever played a playoff game. The Chiefs faced top-seeded Baltimore in Sunday’s conference championship game as decided underdogs.

The Ravens are led by the best dual-threat quarterback of the past fifty years, Lamar Jackson, whose passing prowess has finally caught up with his shifty, deceptively elusive running ability to produce the league’s most dangerous run/pass threat. But Jackson, while accumulating one MVP award and presently awaiting his second, has faded in the postseason. He now owns a 2 – 4 playoff record, and there are whispers that he underperforms when the stakes are highest.

Against the Chiefs Sunday with megastar Taylor Swift joining superstar tight end Travis Kelce’s parents and brother in a luxury box, the Ravens fumbled and fiddled away a winnable game. Jackson faded. His young receivers made some really head-scratching mistakes. The strong Ravens running game was ignored by the play-calling coaches. Baltimore deserved to lose.

Meantime out west, the San Francisco 49ers overcame a three-touchdown halftime deficit to squeeze past the Detroit Lions. The comeback triumph was impressive, but for comparison, Detroit was clobbered on the road against the Ravens this season by 32 points. Kansas City’s win was by far the more impressive.

The 49ers remain nonetheless a team that can afford to pay several stars top dollar on both offense and defense, because their quarterback was the very last player chosen in the 2022 draft and they haven’t yet needed to pay him a salary commensurate with his value to the team. That creates lots of room for big salaries for the team’s all-star runner, linemen and pass catchers. On top of that good fortune, San Francisco has a capable front office that has hit on a more than average number of its draft choices.

The 49ers are a carefully-constructed team loaded with talent. They have a young, talented coach. But while they opened as slight favorites over the Chiefs in the championship game set for February 11 in Las Vegas, the 49ers should not be the betting favorite in the title game.

With ten days still to go before the Super Bowl is played, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the betting line creep steadily in favour of the Chiefs. They have too much experience and self-assurance for the 49ers.

Belichick was not alone in leaving a lengthy, highly successful coaching gig. Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks departed, as did collegiate champion Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh (in a return to the NFL’s San Diego Chargers) and perhaps the greatest collegiate coach of all time, Alabama’s Nick Saban.

The departure of just these four coaching legends may mark this as the most significant offseason of football coaching turnover of all time, but there were as usual plenty of other important arrivals and departures. In football, only the Super Bowl on February 11 remains.